Election 2025 Can “Labour “win?

By Wajahat Ali Khan

The last election in UK was held in 2019 before Corona period, now this term will end in December 2024, now the position is, the UK’s next general election is widely expected to take place in late 2024 and must by law be held by January 2025 at the latest. This is expected to be the first general election with Charles III as monarch following the death of Elizabeth II on 8 September 2022.

The UK parliament has a total 650 seats while a majority of 326 seats are required to form the government. Currently, the party position in Parliament is 356 seats for the ruling Tory Party, 197 for the Labour Party, 44 for the Scottish National Party, 14 for the Liberal Democrats, 8 for the DUP and 13 independent candidates. Apart from this, parties with one, two and three seats are also present in the parliament. After the decline in popularity of the ruling party under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the Tories’ policy on Brexit and the rise of the Labour Party’s graph, political and journalistic analysts are predicting that the Labour Party can perform well in the next election. So, the big question now is whether the labour party can win the next election?

Polls suggest Liz Truss, the UK’s new Conservative prime minister, is far from popular with the British public, while Labour enjoys a boost. Under leader Keir Starmer, the Labour Party has pitched itself as a competent, disciplined government in waiting.
“I want what you want,” British Prime Minister Liz Truss said in last month an impassioned speech at the Conservative Party conference, promising “growth, growth, growth” to fix the economy.
IMF warns UK its budget cuts will ‘likely increase inequality’ While Truss doubles down on her economic agenda – she used the word “growth” 29 times in the speech – some seem keen on not only her removal from office, but also an end to 12 successive years of Conservative Party rule.
“There are about as many people in Britain who think the Moon landings were faked as there are that think that the government is currently doing a good job,” Chris Curtis, head of political polling at market research firm Opinium, told media.

“They’re no longer seen as the party that’s competent, and they’re no longer seen as the party that’s good at running the economy,” Curtis said. Following a botched mini-budget delivered late last month, opinion polls put the right-wing Conservatives at 22 percent – and possibly as much as 33 percent – behind the main opposition Labour Party in national voting intention figures.
Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s heavily criticised plan, which plummeted the pound, included a tax cut for high earners during a cost-of-living crisis and provoked a crisis of confidence among investors.
The polls also suggest Truss is already less popular than her scandal-hit predecessor, Boris Johnson; nearly three-quarters of Britons have an “unfavourable” opinion of her, according to a recent YouGov survey.
The 47-year-old Lis Truss assumed office on September 6 following a leadership contest decided by 140,000 Conservative Party members – a tiny segment of the UK’s overall population.
The “Labour” has ‘done half the job’ The Conservatives’ recent struggles have provided Labour an opportunity. Under leader Keir Starmer, the party has pitched itself as a competent, disciplined government in waiting and moved to reoccupy the centre ground of British politics.
The 60-year-old has promised, if elected, to fix the country’s ailing economy, revitalise the National Health Service (NHS) and tackle climate change. His plans include creating a publicly owned renewable energy company to transform the UK into a “green growth superpower”, boosting home ownership and controlling immigration using a points-based system.
While the Conservatives’ favourability ratings languish at a lowly 20 percent, according to recent polling, 44 percent of voters have a “very” or “somewhat” favourable opinion of Labour, up seven points from just before the government’s mini budget on September 23.
“With the Conservatives in self-destruct mode, in many ways, it is easy to look good. But I think where Labour have still struggled is selling a strong vision to the public,”.
“And as we get closer to a general election, Starmer is going to have to sell something more exciting than, ‘We are not the Tories’ or ‘We know what’s needed to sort out problems.”
This window affords Truss an opportunity to claw back support for the Conservatives – if she can avoid being deposed. Her strategy is clear, Alongside Kwarteng, her long-time ally, she will pursue reforms aimed at kickstarting economic growth, including rolling back regulations, overhauling planning laws and implementing billions of pounds worth of tax cuts.
In her words, the push confronts the “vested interests” of a sweeping “anti-growth coalition” that includes opposition parties, climate protesters, trade unions and “Brexit deniers”. However, her plan represents a huge political gamble.
Prime minister Truss may yet struggle to get a parliamentary sign-off for her agenda, much of which is unpopular, leaving her envisioned race for an economic upswing stuck at the starting gate.
Even if she can navigate the politics, the plan must pay off with clear growth, or she risks the wrath of voters already struggling to make ends meet. “Truss is betting everything on the idea that there will be enough economic growth between now and the next election that she can take credit for,”
and if there is, maybe she can turn around these dramatic, rough (opinion polling) numbers, but it seems at this stage, Labour winning the next election is by quite some distance, the most likely option.” The growth in support for Labour has been very rapid, which suggests it is not necessarily very deep, “So I think there is road still left to run on this, and that Labour, as much as they look in a strong position, are not in an unbeatable position.”

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